Career
Career
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean

Insights

Net Zero 2050

The future of energy in transportation

Decarbonizing Global Transport – A Turning Poin

The transportation sector is at the center of the global net-zero transformation, contributing nearly 25% of energy-related CO₂ emissions. While passenger cars and commercial vehicles account for the majority, aviation and maritime industries also play significant roles. Governments and industries worldwide have set ambitious decarbonization targets, but the exact pathways remain uncertain and complex.

 

This study explores the evolving energy demand across key global regions—the EU, US, China, and Brazil—representing 60% of global transport energy consumption. By analyzing 40 energy vectors and employing advanced Monte Carlo simulations, the study unveils energy transition scenarios through 2050.

The Shift in Energy Demand: What to Expect?

The results indicate a dramatic transformation in how transportation is powered:

  • Decline of Fossil Fuels, Rise of Alternative Energy
    • Petroleum-based fuels will see a steep decline, driven by stricter CO₂ regulations and advances in alternative energy.
    • Despite the rise of electric and hydrogen-based fuels, liquid fuels will still supply over 50% of transport energy in 2050 due to their role in aviation and maritime industries.
    • The shift will be gradual until 2030, but after 2040, the demand for e-fuels and biofuels will surge to compensate for declining fossil fuel use.
  • Hydrogen and Electricity: The Game Changers
    • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) will dominate long-haul commercial transport, replacing traditional diesel trucks.
    • Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will see mass adoption, particularly in urban and regional mobility.
    • Hydrogen and ammonia will become key energy carriers, especially in aviation and shipping.
  • The Role of Biofuels and E-Fuels
    • Biofuels will be essential for aviation and maritime sectors, but their availability will be constrained by feedstock limitations.
    • E-fuels (synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen and CO₂) will gain importance after 2040, particularly in aviation.
    • The EU and US will lead in e-fuel adoption, while China will continue relying on fossil fuels until its net-zero goal in 2060.

Regional Energy Evolution:
Who Leads the Race?

The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization outlines the most aggressive transition away from fossil fuels, with the goal of achieving zero petroleum-based fuels by 2050.

The EU Fit for 55 package and Green Deal set ambitious climate targets, including a 90% reduction in transport emissions by 2050. While electrification dominates passenger and light commercial transport, the EU sees hydrogen as a cornerstone for heavy transport, aviation, and industry.

hina, the world’s largest transportation energy consumer, has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, placing it ten years behind the EU and U.S. However, its transition is expected to accelerate rapidly after 2040 due to:

  • Government-controlled industrial shifts
  • Delayed phaseout of fossil fuels
  • Heavy investment in battery-electric transport
  • State-led hydrogen initiatives
  • Maritime sector focus on LNG and ammonia
  • Aviation biofuels as a later-stage priority

Brazil is unique in the global energy transition due to its strong biomass resources, making biofuels the dominant alternative to fossil fuels. Unlike the U.S. and EU, which focus on e-fuels and hydrogen, Brazil will rely primarily on ethanol and biodiesel to decarbonize transport.

Teal background of FEV Consulting Shape with a download icon
Teal background of FEV Consulting Shape with a download icon

Access the full
24 pages report

Stay ahead in the energy transition. Make informed decisions for a sustainable future—whether you’re an industry leader, policymaker, or investor.

Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.
Chinese roads

Published on May 22, 2025Insights

China automotive industry analysis report 2024

Though a moderation in overall domestic consumption growth, China’s NEV sales and penetration rate still increased quickly…

Read more 1 Minutes
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean
A logistic tanker is crossing the ocean

Published on January 15, 2025Insights

OGCI | FEV – Net zero 2050

Reaching Net Zero 2050 will require a complete transformation of energy supply and demand. While electrification and hydrogen will dominate ground transport, liquid fuels will continue playing a crucial role in aviation and shipping. The real challenge lies in ensuring…

Read more 3 Minutes
An abstract pearl is hold by a line
An abstract pearl is hold by a line

Published on September 15, 2024Insights

Battery recycling

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption surges, managing end-of-life (EoL) lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries is a growing challenge. By 2040, over 1 billion tons of EoL batteries will require recycling, making sustainability, cost efficiency, and regulatory compliance key concerns for Original Equipment…

Read more 3 Minutes
Abstract elements which are reflecting geographical layers
Abstract elements which are reflecting geographical layers

Published on June 15, 2024Insights

Electrification NRRM

The electrification of Mobile Machinery in agriculture and construction is a feasible yet ambitious undertaking, driven by a variety of factors aimed at achieving a more sustainable industry beyond 2030. The study analyzes four use cases within construction and agriculture,…

Read more 5 Minutes
An engine manufacture
An engine manufacture

Published on January 20, 2024Insights

Electrification and Industry Transformation

The transition to electrified powertrains is reshaping the manufacturing value chain, with legacy combustion engine components facing a €50 billion decline by 2040. Meanwhile, battery systems, electric motors, and fuel cell technologies will drive €68 billion in new business potential.

Read more 4 Minutes